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JEAN-JOSEPH BOILLOT (April 13, 2015)

Monday 13 April 2015 
AfK - conference hall - 6.30 pm

Jean-Joseph Boillot has a PHD in Economic and Social Sciences. He has taught at the prestigious Ecole Normale Superieure and worked as research scholar on Asia in different research institutions. He has spent long years in India and China in the 1980’s, following which he submitted a doctoral thesis on the Indian model of development as compared to the Chinese model. Later he joined the Ministry of Finance as Economic Counselor for ensuring the follow-up of the rise of emerging economies in central Europe, ex-USSR and Asia. He was posted in Delhi as Financial Counselor between 2003 and 2005.

Returning to Paris in 2006 he divided his time between teaching and consultancy for different public institutions and companies on emerging countries. He then opened a new field of research on the rise of Africa and its impact on the two Asian giants. He named this concept as “Chindiafrica”. It is also the title of one of his book. In it he introduced the concept of a new space in world economy which will emerge around 2030. This new space will be based on “business models” and frugal and disruptive innovations.

Jean-Joseph Boillot has authored around 20 books among which “Pakistan – its economy and development”

  • How new Giants are shaping the World and what are the challenges for Pakistan
    by Jean-Joseph Boillot
    Monday 13 April 2015 - Alliance française - Conference Hall

The book Chindiafrica analyzes how China and India with other emerging countries have turned upside down the world economy for almost thirty years and how, with the arrival of the third giant, Africa, they are going to shape it even more in 2030. The date corresponds to the mixing of several major trends: the crossing of the three continents population dynamics; the peak oil and in fact that of a large set of raw materials; The global warming maximum ceiling according to the best experts; and last, the likely maturity of three technological revolutions: IT, Nanotechnologies and Biotechnologies.

The novelty of the approach consists in privileging the view point of the emerging world and in particular of these three continental giants. The way they perceive their assets and their limits, as well as their own views on the rest of the world. And this thanks to a long experience on the ground since the beginning of the 1980s and thanks to a continuous dialogue with a panel of 18 to 25 years old native of this new world. The study follows also a multidisciplinary approach: demography, economics, technology, geopolitics and culture …

The work concentrates in particular on the scenarios till 2030 for the three continental giants who form what we call "Chindiafrica". This gigantic group weighs already more half of the world population and follows different temporal dynamics and different models of development whose combination will powerfully shape our future:

  • China, the demography of which already start to slow down and the challenge of which is the transition towards economic and political maturity;
  • India, and at large the South-asia subcontinent which took off more recently and whose challenge is about social, political and environmental sustainability ;
  • Africa, finally, a real demographic bomb in the decades to come but especially a continent where we see appearing gradually the possible transition towards a political and institutional stabilization, conditions for the economic takeoff who may start and consolidates by the end of the period. In the meantime, migration will shape the future of Europe, so closed in geographical and historical terms.

But the analysis is also about the past 30 years with a new explanation of the major events since the 1970s. The hypothesis is that the concomitant rise of the three continental giants and their crossing was the major underground trend since the break of the former world (between the oil crisis of 1973 and the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989) and that it will be the phenomenon standing out before 2030. Already, we can have a reading of the crisis of 2008 not in terms of financial disorders only as the dominant approach tried to reduce it, but in terms of fundamental imbalances of the world economy due to the emergence of these three giants, including Africa.

The old economic powers have to anticipate more than ever the fundamental forces in motion and learn how to play in a cooperative and not defensive, even aggressive, manner as they did in the post 1973 oil crisis. This is the non recognition of the New World which is at the origin of the global economic and political disorders. Other developing region will also have to adapt to this « new Era» which is going to structure more and more the world economy.

Finally the analysis shows the consequences for the developed countries as the United States, Europe or Japan. Sustainable development, management of migration and natural resources, new local and international governance … The current economic crisis already incites us to think of these issues but we have to go beyond the immediate current events, by looking at the underground factors of which the author think the leading one is the emergence of "Chindiafrica" and the challenges it poses, including for a country like Pakistan who can not ignore these structural trends in reshaping its economic and political strategy.